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Vol. I · Sunday 20 September 2026 Follow the wire on X

A newsroom, not a tracker

AI Resets

The coding-limit wire

Observatory

Instruments, not oracles

The Observatory is where we look at the book as a book. Counts are descriptive. SAMPLE rows are excluded. Gaps are not a next-reset estimate.

Verified cards

35

Named house voice, quoted, with the permalink and the capture on file.

Houses on the masthead

5

Codex, Claude, Grok, Cursor, Gemini — unequal bureaus.

Bureaus modelled

3

A hazard model with its calibration published. Confidence is Low today.

Model

The Observatory counts. It does not estimate. The estimating happens on one page and one page only, where the hazard model prints its parameters, its hour and weekday profiles, and the Brier score it earned against a flat base rate. If the model has no edge, that page says so in the same size type as the percentage.

Read the forecast and its method →

2026 verified weather, by month

Mar

0

Apr

0

May

3

Jun

5

Jul

9

Aug

10

Sep

8

Bureaus

Codex

Named hard resets, banked grants, milestone flushes — Irregular. Historically quiet 01:00–08:00 PT.

24 cards

Claude Code

Weekly Max resets, policy memos, temporary multipliers — Sparser than Codex. Often a named plan, not 'everyone'.

8 cards

Grok Bot

Global token flushes announced on X — Tied to model drops. Account weekly pool is separate.

3 cards

Cursor

Confirms when a partner flush hits Grok Bot meters — No independent 'Cursor reset' ritual. Partner-led.

0 cards

Gemini

Quota incidents more than goodwill flushes — No public Tibo equivalent. Treat whispers as SAMPLE.

0 cards

Recent verified motion

  1. Sep 19 · Policy · Friday reply, Tuesday promise: Tibo confirms a date and names nothing
  2. Sep 12 · Hard reset · Desk note: Tibo says the September reset has propagated
  3. Sep 9 · Banked grant · The banked reset that did not apply, and the make-good that followed
  4. Sep 8 · Hard reset · All reset for everyone. Enjoy the week with Astra.
  5. Sep 5 · Hard reset · Another Bot wipe, four days later — still not your Cursor plan reset
  6. Sep 4 · Banked grant · Happy Astra day: banked reset for Plus, Pro, Business
  7. Sep 4 · Hard reset · Lydia resets Claude Max weekly limits — a named plan, not a vibe
  8. Sep 1 · Hard reset · Elon announces another free Grok Bot token reset