{ "$schema": "https://airesets.dev/forecast.json", "generator": "airesets forecast model", "asOf": "2026-09-20T17:36:02.805Z", "rebuildEveryHours": 6, "method": "https://airesets.dev/forecast", "ledger": "scripts/forecast/ledger.json", "catalysts": "scripts/forecast/catalysts.json", "disclaimer": "A hazard model over public reset announcements. It is an estimate, not a schedule. Read confidence and backtest before quoting the percentages: where edge is zero or negative the model has no demonstrated advantage over a flat base rate. Each forecast carries a catalysts block: the lift every class of catalyst earned over this bureau's own base rate, the windows open today, the shared board of what is coming, and the contagion matrix. A class under three comparable days is marked thin and carries a hazard lift of 1. backtest.brierWithCatalysts is the same walk with that layer on, so edgeFromCatalysts is what it is worth and nothing else.", "license": "CC BY 4.0. Attribute AI Resets and link the method page.", "forecasts": [ { "provider": "codex", "label": "Codex", "asOf": "2026-09-20T17:36:02.805Z", "lastResetAt": "2026-09-12T08:09:00.000Z", "daysSince": 8.393782465277777, "p24": 0.2919793307871654, "p48": 0.50393900052488, "p72": 0.6558180194880162, "empirical": { "p24": 0.14285714285714285, "p48": 0.2857142857142857, "p72": 0.5714285714285714, "n": 7 }, "weibull": { "k": 1.280748337527488, "scale": 5.7772923119931185, "n": 36, "shrunk": false }, "gaps": { "mean": 5.317881944444444, "median": 3.4649305555555556, "min": 0.8576388888888888, "max": 18.51597222222222, "p25": 2.0197916666666664, "p75": 7.729513888888889 }, "peakWindowPT": [ 16, 19 ], "hourHist": [ 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 0, 2, 4, 1, 0, 4, 5, 3, 1, 3, 3, 2, 0 ], "dowHist": [ 4, 5, 6, 6, 5, 4, 7 ], "sleepZone": { "count": 2, "of": 37 }, "multipliers": [ { "name": "cluster momentum", "factor": 1, "note": "0 full resets in the last 5 days, so there is no burst to ride. Two or more makes it fire." }, { "name": "long drought", "factor": 1.15, "note": "The wait is past the 75th percentile of 7.73 days. The rising hazard already covers most of it, which is why the nudge is small." }, { "name": "milestone rung overdue", "factor": 1.2, "note": "21.7 days since the last rung (Codex 25M active users, 2026-08-30), past the 9-day median spacing, and rung days carried a reset 4 of 5 times. Worth x1.20. No catalyst window is open on this build.", "held": false, "heldFactor": null, "edgeFromCatalysts": 0.0010161422541946352 } ], "announced": { "at": "2026-09-22T12:00:00.000Z", "date": "2026-09-22", "postedAt": "2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z", "text": "OK fine. But it’s also still coming in Tuesday", "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2101352781219258527", "id": "2101352781219258527", "kind": "banked", "p": 0.9, "handle": "thsottiaux", "source": "Tibo" }, "catalysts": { "base": 0.47643979057591623, "window": { "beforeHours": 24, "afterHours": 72 }, "lifts": [ { "id": "same-launch", "label": "same-house launch", "kind": "launch", "scope": "same", "hits": 2, "total": 4, "rate": 0.5, "smoothedRate": 0.5, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.0494505494505495, "hazardLift": 1.0494505494505495, "trusted": true, "examples": [ { "date": "2026-03-05", "name": "GPT-5.4 (Thinking, Pro)" }, { "date": "2026-07-09", "name": "GPT-5.6 GA (Luna, Terra, Sol)" } ] }, { "id": "other-launch", "label": "other-house launch", "kind": "launch", "scope": "other", "hits": 9, "total": 12, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7307692307692307, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5338123415046492, "hazardLift": 1.5338123415046492, "trusted": true, "examples": [ { "date": "2026-04-16", "name": "Claude Opus 4.7" }, { "date": "2026-06-30", "name": "Claude Sonnet 5; Fable 5 export restrictions lifted" }, { "date": "2026-07-08", "name": "Grok 4.5" }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "name": "Claude Opus 5" }, { "date": "2026-08-11", "name": "Grok Bot beta" }, { "date": "2026-08-12", "name": "Grok 4.6" }, { "date": "2026-08-13", "name": "Gemini 3.7 Flash" }, { "date": "2026-08-26", "name": "Grok Bot general availability (SuperGrok, Cursor Pro)" }, { "date": "2026-09-01", "name": "Claude Fable 5.1 + Mythos 5.1" } ] }, { "id": "same-minor", "label": "same-house minor", "kind": "minor", "scope": "same", "hits": 4, "total": 4, "rate": 1, "smoothedRate": 0.9, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.889010989010989, "hazardLift": 1.889010989010989, "trusted": true, "examples": [ { "date": "2026-06-26", "name": "GPT-5.6 limited preview" }, { "date": "2026-08-08", "name": "GPT-5.6 Sol available in the Claude Code harness" }, { "date": "2026-08-10", "name": "GPT-5.6-Cyber" }, { "date": "2026-09-08", "name": "GPT Image 2.5 (Flare, Sunburst); ChatGPT stable on Astra" } ] }, { "id": "other-minor", "label": "other-house minor", "kind": "minor", "scope": "other", "hits": 2, "total": 2, "rate": 1, "smoothedRate": 0.8333333333333334, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.749084249084249, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "examples": [ { "date": "2026-07-16", "name": "Grok Build open-sourced" }, { "date": "2026-07-21", "name": "Three new Gemini models (no 3.5 Pro)" } ] }, { "id": "same-milestone", "label": "own milestone", "kind": "milestone", "scope": "same", "hits": 4, "total": 5, "rate": 0.8, "smoothedRate": 0.75, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5741758241758241, "hazardLift": 1.5741758241758241, "trusted": true, "examples": [ { "date": "2026-07-14", "name": "Codex 8M active users" }, { "date": "2026-07-21", "name": "Codex 10M active users" }, { "date": "2026-08-12", "name": "Codex 15M active users (announced 12-13 Aug)" }, { "date": "2026-08-30", "name": "Codex 25M active users" } ] }, { "id": "same-incident", "label": "own incident", "kind": "incident", "scope": "same", "hits": 4, "total": 4, "rate": 1, "smoothedRate": 0.9, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.889010989010989, "hazardLift": 1.889010989010989, "trusted": true, "examples": [ { "date": "2026-06-26", "name": "Codex usage-limit drain investigation (26-29 Jun)" }, { "date": "2026-07-25", "name": "Codex near-global outage (night of 24-25 Jul)" }, { "date": "2026-08-29", "name": "Codex quota-bug week fixes shipped" }, { "date": "2026-09-09", "name": "Banked resets not applying (kerfuffle)" } ] }, { "id": "other-policy", "label": "other-house policy", "kind": "policy", "scope": "other", "hits": 1, "total": 2, "rate": 0.5, "smoothedRate": 0.5, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.0494505494505495, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "examples": [ { "date": "2026-08-29", "name": "Claude Code weekly limits +25% from 14 Sep (17% below the promo)" } ] } ], "shipDayPrior": { "id": "same-ship", "label": "same-house ship day", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5158730158730158, "hazardLift": 1.5158730158730158, "trusted": true, "examples": [ { "date": "2026-03-05", "name": "GPT-5.4 (Thinking, Pro)" }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "name": "GPT-5.6 limited preview" }, { "date": "2026-07-09", "name": "GPT-5.6 GA (Luna, Terra, Sol)" }, { "date": "2026-08-08", "name": "GPT-5.6 Sol available in the Claude Code harness" }, { "date": "2026-08-10", "name": "GPT-5.6-Cyber" }, { "date": "2026-09-08", "name": "GPT Image 2.5 (Flare, Sunburst); ChatGPT stable on Astra" } ] }, "active": [], "upcoming": [ { "date": "2026-09-22", "at": "2026-09-22T12:00:00.000Z", "daysUntil": 1.766634201388889, "inDays": 2, "house": "openai", "houseLabel": "OpenAI", "kind": "promise", "name": "Banked reset promised for Tuesday", "chip": "banked reset", "source": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2101352781219258527", "confidence": "stated", "inHazard": false, "active": false, "headline": null, "watch": [], "providers": [ { "id": "same-promise", "label": "Codex", "kind": "promise", "scope": "same", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-promise" }, { "id": "other-promise", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "promise", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-promise" }, { "id": "other-promise", "label": "Grok Bot", "kind": "promise", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "grok", "classLabel": "other-promise" } ] }, { "date": "2026-09-29", "at": "2026-09-29T12:00:00.000Z", "daysUntil": 8.76663420138889, "inDays": 9, "house": "openai", "houseLabel": "OpenAI", "kind": "event", "name": "OpenAI DevDay, Fort Mason, San Francisco", "chip": "OpenAI DevDay", "source": "https://devday.openai.com/", "confidence": "scheduled", "inHazard": true, "active": false, "headline": "75% of OpenAI ship days saw a Codex full reset within 72 hours, 6 of 8, against a 48% base.", "watch": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5158730158730158, "hazardLift": 1.5158730158730158, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 1, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" } ], "providers": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5158730158730158, "hazardLift": 1.5158730158730158, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 1, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Grok Bot", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "grok", "classLabel": "other-house event" } ] }, { "date": "2026-10-16", "at": "2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z", "daysUntil": 25.76663420138889, "inDays": 26, "house": "openai", "houseLabel": "OpenAI", "kind": "event", "name": "DevDay Exchange Bengaluru", "chip": "DevDay Exchange Bengaluru", "source": "https://devday.openai.com/", "confidence": "scheduled", "inHazard": true, "active": false, "headline": "75% of OpenAI ship days saw a Codex full reset within 72 hours, 6 of 8, against a 48% base, carried at 50% for a satellite stop.", "watch": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.257936507936508, "hazardLift": 1.257936507936508, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 0.5, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet, carried at 50% for a satellite stop", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" } ], "providers": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.257936507936508, "hazardLift": 1.257936507936508, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 0.5, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet, carried at 50% for a satellite stop", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Grok Bot", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "grok", "classLabel": "other-house event" } ] }, { "date": "2026-10-20", "at": "2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z", "daysUntil": 29.76663420138889, "inDays": 30, "house": "openai", "houseLabel": "OpenAI", "kind": "event", "name": "DevDay Exchange Tokyo", "chip": "DevDay Exchange Tokyo", "source": "https://devday.openai.com/", "confidence": "scheduled", "inHazard": true, "active": false, "headline": "75% of OpenAI ship days saw a Codex full reset within 72 hours, 6 of 8, against a 48% base, carried at 50% for a satellite stop.", "watch": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.257936507936508, "hazardLift": 1.257936507936508, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 0.5, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet, carried at 50% for a satellite stop", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" } ], "providers": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.257936507936508, "hazardLift": 1.257936507936508, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 0.5, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet, carried at 50% for a satellite stop", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Grok Bot", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "grok", "classLabel": "other-house event" } ] }, { "date": "2026-10-22", "at": "2026-10-22T12:00:00.000Z", "daysUntil": 31.76663420138889, "inDays": 32, "house": "openai", "houseLabel": "OpenAI", "kind": "event", "name": "DevDay Exchange Seoul", "chip": "DevDay Exchange Seoul", "source": "https://devday.openai.com/", "confidence": "scheduled", "inHazard": true, "active": false, "headline": "75% of OpenAI ship days saw a Codex full reset within 72 hours, 6 of 8, against a 48% base, carried at 50% for a satellite stop.", "watch": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.257936507936508, "hazardLift": 1.257936507936508, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 0.5, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet, carried at 50% for a satellite stop", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" } ], "providers": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.257936507936508, "hazardLift": 1.257936507936508, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 0.5, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet, carried at 50% for a satellite stop", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Grok Bot", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "grok", "classLabel": "other-house event" } ] }, { "date": "2026-10-26", "at": "2026-10-26T12:00:00.000Z", "daysUntil": 35.76663420138889, "inDays": 36, "house": "openai", "houseLabel": "OpenAI", "kind": "event", "name": "DevDay Exchange Berlin", "chip": "DevDay Exchange Berlin", "source": "https://devday.openai.com/", "confidence": "scheduled", "inHazard": true, "active": false, "headline": "75% of OpenAI ship days saw a Codex full reset within 72 hours, 6 of 8, against a 48% base, carried at 50% for a satellite stop.", "watch": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.257936507936508, "hazardLift": 1.257936507936508, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 0.5, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet, carried at 50% for a satellite stop", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" } ], "providers": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.257936507936508, "hazardLift": 1.257936507936508, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 0.5, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet, carried at 50% for a satellite stop", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Grok Bot", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "grok", "classLabel": "other-house event" } ] }, { "date": "2026-10-28", "at": "2026-10-28T12:00:00.000Z", "daysUntil": 37.76663420138889, "inDays": 38, "house": "openai", "houseLabel": "OpenAI", "kind": "event", "name": "DevDay Exchange Paris", "chip": "DevDay Exchange Paris", "source": "https://devday.openai.com/", "confidence": "scheduled", "inHazard": true, "active": false, "headline": "75% of OpenAI ship days saw a Codex full reset within 72 hours, 6 of 8, against a 48% base, carried at 50% for a satellite stop.", "watch": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.257936507936508, "hazardLift": 1.257936507936508, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 0.5, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet, carried at 50% for a satellite stop", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" } ], "providers": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.257936507936508, "hazardLift": 1.257936507936508, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 0.5, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet, carried at 50% for a satellite stop", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Grok Bot", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "grok", "classLabel": "other-house event" } ] }, { "date": null, "at": null, "daysUntil": null, "inDays": null, "house": "xai", "houseLabel": "xAI", "kind": "launch", "name": "Grok 4.7 (missed 12 Sep; 'needs a few more days to cook' on 11 Sep)", "chip": "Grok 4.7", "source": "https://cellcog.ai/blog/grok-4-7-release-date/", "confidence": "imminent", "inHazard": true, "active": false, "headline": "75% of other-house frontier launch days saw a Codex full reset within 72 hours, 9 of 12, against a 48% base.", "watch": [ { "id": "other-launch", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "launch", "scope": "other", "hits": 5, "total": 10, "rate": 0.5, "smoothedRate": 0.5, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 2.517857142857143, "hazardLift": 2.517857142857143, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house launch" }, { "id": "other-launch", "label": "Codex", "kind": "launch", "scope": "other", "hits": 9, "total": 12, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7307692307692307, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5338123415046492, "hazardLift": 1.5338123415046492, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "other-house launch" } ], "providers": [ { "id": "other-launch", "label": "Codex", "kind": "launch", "scope": "other", "hits": 9, "total": 12, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7307692307692307, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5338123415046492, "hazardLift": 1.5338123415046492, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "other-house launch" }, { "id": "other-launch", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "launch", "scope": "other", "hits": 5, "total": 10, "rate": 0.5, "smoothedRate": 0.5, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 2.517857142857143, "hazardLift": 2.517857142857143, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house launch" }, { "id": "same-launch", "label": "Grok Bot", "kind": "launch", "scope": "same", "hits": 1, "total": 4, "rate": 0.25, "smoothedRate": 0.3, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "grok", "classLabel": "same-house launch" } ] }, { "date": null, "at": null, "daysUntil": null, "inDays": null, "house": "openai", "houseLabel": "OpenAI", "kind": "milestone", "name": "Codex 30M active users (25M on 30 Aug; rungs came every 8-10 days in August)", "chip": "Codex 30M active users", "source": null, "confidence": "estimated", "inHazard": true, "active": false, "headline": "80% of OpenAI milestone days saw a Codex full reset within 72 hours, 4 of 5, against a 48% base.", "watch": [ { "id": "same-milestone", "label": "Codex", "kind": "milestone", "scope": "same", "hits": 4, "total": 5, "rate": 0.8, "smoothedRate": 0.75, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5741758241758241, "hazardLift": 1.5741758241758241, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "own milestone" }, { "id": "other-milestone", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "milestone", "scope": "other", "hits": 1, "total": 5, "rate": 0.2, "smoothedRate": 0.25, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1.2589285714285714, "hazardLift": 1.2589285714285714, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house milestone" } ], "providers": [ { "id": "same-milestone", "label": "Codex", "kind": "milestone", "scope": "same", "hits": 4, "total": 5, "rate": 0.8, "smoothedRate": 0.75, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5741758241758241, "hazardLift": 1.5741758241758241, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "own milestone" }, { "id": "other-milestone", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "milestone", "scope": "other", "hits": 1, "total": 5, "rate": 0.2, "smoothedRate": 0.25, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1.2589285714285714, "hazardLift": 1.2589285714285714, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house milestone" }, { "id": "other-milestone", "label": "Grok Bot", "kind": "milestone", "scope": "other", "hits": 1, "total": 5, "rate": 0.2, "smoothedRate": 0.25, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "grok", "classLabel": "other-house milestone" } ] }, { "date": null, "at": null, "daysUntil": null, "inDays": null, "house": "google", "houseLabel": "Google", "kind": "launch", "name": "Gemini 3.5 Pro (missed June, mid-July, early August targets)", "chip": "Gemini 3.5 Pro", "source": null, "confidence": "unknown", "inHazard": true, "active": false, "headline": "75% of other-house frontier launch days saw a Codex full reset within 72 hours, 9 of 12, against a 48% base.", "watch": [ { "id": "other-launch", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "launch", "scope": "other", "hits": 5, "total": 10, "rate": 0.5, "smoothedRate": 0.5, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 2.517857142857143, "hazardLift": 2.517857142857143, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house launch" }, { "id": "other-launch", "label": "Codex", "kind": "launch", "scope": "other", "hits": 9, "total": 12, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7307692307692307, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5338123415046492, "hazardLift": 1.5338123415046492, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "other-house launch" } ], "providers": [ { "id": "other-launch", "label": "Codex", "kind": "launch", "scope": "other", "hits": 9, "total": 12, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7307692307692307, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5338123415046492, "hazardLift": 1.5338123415046492, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "other-house launch" }, { "id": "other-launch", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "launch", "scope": "other", "hits": 5, "total": 10, "rate": 0.5, "smoothedRate": 0.5, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 2.517857142857143, "hazardLift": 2.517857142857143, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house launch" }, { "id": "other-launch", "label": "Grok Bot", "kind": "launch", "scope": "other", "hits": 3, "total": 12, "rate": 0.25, "smoothedRate": 0.2692307692307692, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "grok", "classLabel": "other-house launch" } ] } ], "contagion": [ { "house": "openai", "label": "OpenAI", "ships": 8, "rows": [ { "provider": "codex", "label": "Codex", "same": true, "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5158730158730158, "trusted": true }, { "provider": "claude", "label": "Claude Code", "same": false, "hits": 3, "total": 8, "rate": 0.375, "smoothedRate": 0.3888888888888889, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1.9583333333333333, "trusted": true }, { "provider": "grok", "label": "Grok Bot", "same": false, "hits": 1, "total": 8, "rate": 0.125, "smoothedRate": 0.16666666666666666, "base": null, "lift": 1, "trusted": false } ] }, { "house": "anthropic", "label": "Anthropic", "ships": 6, "rows": [ { "provider": "codex", "label": "Codex", "same": false, "hits": 4, "total": 6, "rate": 0.6666666666666666, "smoothedRate": 0.6428571428571429, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.349293563579278, "trusted": true }, { "provider": "claude", "label": "Claude Code", "same": true, "hits": 3, "total": 6, "rate": 0.5, "smoothedRate": 0.5, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 2.517857142857143, "trusted": true }, { "provider": "grok", "label": "Grok Bot", "same": false, "hits": 1, "total": 6, "rate": 0.16666666666666666, "smoothedRate": 0.21428571428571427, "base": null, "lift": 1, "trusted": false } ] }, { "house": "xai", "label": "xAI", "ships": 5, "rows": [ { "provider": "codex", "label": "Codex", "same": false, "hits": 5, "total": 5, "rate": 1, "smoothedRate": 0.9166666666666666, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.9239926739926738, "trusted": true }, { "provider": "claude", "label": "Claude Code", "same": false, "hits": 2, "total": 5, "rate": 0.4, "smoothedRate": 0.4166666666666667, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 2.0982142857142856, "trusted": true }, { "provider": "grok", "label": "Grok Bot", "same": true, "hits": 1, "total": 5, "rate": 0.2, "smoothedRate": 0.25, "base": null, "lift": 1, "trusted": false } ] }, { "house": "google", "label": "Google", "ships": 3, "rows": [ { "provider": "codex", "label": "Codex", "same": false, "hits": 2, "total": 3, "rate": 0.6666666666666666, "smoothedRate": 0.625, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.3118131868131868, "trusted": false }, { "provider": "claude", "label": "Claude Code", "same": false, "hits": 1, "total": 3, "rate": 0.3333333333333333, "smoothedRate": 0.375, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1.888392857142857, "trusted": false }, { "provider": "grok", "label": "Grok Bot", "same": false, "hits": 1, "total": 3, "rate": 0.3333333333333333, "smoothedRate": 0.375, "base": null, "lift": 1, "trusted": false } ] } ], "milestoneDue": { "house": "openai", "houseLabel": "OpenAI", "rungs": 5, "last": { "date": "2026-08-30", "name": "Codex 25M active users" }, "spacings": [ 7, 22, 9, 9 ], "medianSpacing": 9, "daysSince": 21.73336579861111, "due": true, "provider": "codex", "applies": true, "applied": true, "factor": 1.2, "class": { "hits": 4, "total": 5, "rate": 0.8, "lift": 1.5741758241758241, "trusted": true } }, "devDay": { "date": "2026-09-29", "at": "2026-09-29T12:00:00.000Z", "name": "OpenAI DevDay, Fort Mason, San Francisco", "chip": "OpenAI DevDay", "daysUntil": 8.76663420138889, "inDays": 9, "source": "https://devday.openai.com/", "priorRate": 0.75, "n": 8, "hits": 6, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5158730158730158, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorScale": 1, "note": "No OpenAI event of this kind is in the ledger yet, so this is the pooled same-house ship-day rate: 6 of 8 ship days were followed by a Codex full reset within 72 hours." }, "factor": 1.2, "trigger": { "name": "milestone rung overdue", "factor": 1.2, "note": "21.7 days since the last rung (Codex 25M active users, 2026-08-30), past the 9-day median spacing, and rung days carried a reset 4 of 5 times. Worth x1.20. No catalyst window is open on this build.", "held": false, "heldFactor": null, "edgeFromCatalysts": 0.0010161422541946352 }, "appliedFactor": 1.2, "held": false }, "confidence": "Low", "backtest": { "brier": 0.15528242957136082, "baseline": 0.15456296824290833, "edge": -0.000719461328452492, "days": 164, "brierWithCatalysts": 0.15426628731716618, "edgeWithCatalysts": 0.0002966809257421432, "edgeFromCatalysts": 0.0010161422541946352, "catalystDays": 38 }, "sampleSize": 36, "resets": 37, "regimeStart": "2026-03-01T00:00:00Z", "recent": [ { "at": "2026-09-12T08:09:00.000Z", "gapDays": 4.169444444444444, "receiptId": "2098685367058612394", "receiptUrl": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2098685367058612394", "slug": "codex-propagated-2026-09-12" }, { "at": "2026-09-08T04:05:00.000Z", "gapDays": 8.066666666666666, "receiptId": "2097174560412246215", "receiptUrl": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2097174560412246215", "slug": "codex-astra-reset-2026-09-08" }, { "at": "2026-08-31T02:29:00.000Z", "gapDays": 1.2402777777777778, "receiptId": "2094252447271366730", "receiptUrl": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2094252447271366730", "slug": "codex-25m-celebration-2026-08-31" }, { "at": "2026-08-29T20:43:00.000Z", "gapDays": 2.172222222222222, "receiptId": "2093801758665715784", "receiptUrl": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2093801758665715784", "slug": "tibo-paid-flush-2026-08-29" }, { "at": "2026-08-27T16:35:00.000Z", "gapDays": 2.0868055555555554, "receiptId": "2093014447833116908", "receiptUrl": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2093014447833116908", "slug": "codex-slept-better-2026-08-27" }, { "at": "2026-08-25T14:30:00.000Z", "gapDays": 1.5722222222222222 }, { "at": "2026-08-24T00:46:00.000Z", "gapDays": 10.989583333333334 }, { "at": "2026-08-13T01:01:00.000Z", "gapDays": 2.0229166666666667, "receiptId": "2087706104814023111", "receiptUrl": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2087706104814023111", "slug": "codex-15m-reset-2026-08-13" }, { "at": "2026-08-11T00:28:00.000Z", "gapDays": 2.1659722222222224, "receiptId": "2086972933566857393", "receiptUrl": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2086972933566857393", "slug": "codex-happy-monday-2026-08-11" }, { "at": "2026-08-08T20:29:00.000Z", "gapDays": 7.70625, "receiptId": "2086188036493344823", "receiptUrl": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2086188036493344823", "slug": "codex-sol-harness-2026-08-08" }, { "at": "2026-08-01T03:32:00.000Z", "gapDays": 2.9743055555555555 }, { "at": "2026-07-29T04:09:00.000Z", "gapDays": 1.0416666666666667 } ] }, { "provider": "claude", "label": "Claude Code", "asOf": "2026-09-20T17:36:02.805Z", "lastResetAt": "2026-09-04T20:08:00.000Z", "daysSince": 15.894476909722222, "p24": 0.0866276404759494, "p48": 0.16645448253614759, "p72": 0.2399157512824588, "empirical": { "p24": 0, "p48": 0.3333333333333333, "p72": 0.3333333333333333, "n": 3 }, "weibull": { "k": 1.156493004371889, "scale": 14.89875201136815, "n": 10, "shrunk": false }, "gaps": { "mean": 14.10041666666667, "median": 8.692708333333332, "min": 0.8854166666666666, "max": 50.673611111111114, "p25": 7.144270833333334, "p75": 15.707638888888889 }, "peakWindowPT": [ 11, 14 ], "hourHist": [ 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 2, 0, 2, 2, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0 ], "dowHist": [ 0, 1, 1, 2, 4, 3, 0 ], "sleepZone": { "count": 0, "of": 11 }, "multipliers": [ { "name": "cluster momentum", "factor": 1, "note": "0 full resets in the last 5 days, so there is no burst to ride. Two or more makes it fire." }, { "name": "long drought", "factor": 1.15, "note": "The wait is past the 75th percentile of 15.71 days. The rising hazard already covers most of it, which is why the nudge is small." }, { "name": "catalyst window", "factor": 1, "note": "No catalyst window is open on this build. The layer is held off this bureau's hazard either way: the rolling walk scores it at -0.0163 of Brier, ground it costs this bureau.", "held": true, "heldFactor": 1, "edgeFromCatalysts": -0.01632040037784617 } ], "announced": null, "catalysts": { "base": 0.19858156028368795, "window": { "beforeHours": 24, "afterHours": 72 }, "lifts": [ { "id": "same-launch", "label": "same-house launch", "kind": "launch", "scope": "same", "hits": 3, "total": 6, "rate": 0.5, "smoothedRate": 0.5, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 2.517857142857143, "hazardLift": 2.517857142857143, "trusted": true, "examples": [ { "date": "2026-04-16", "name": "Claude Opus 4.7" }, { "date": "2026-06-09", "name": "Claude Fable 5 + Mythos 5" }, { "date": "2026-06-30", "name": "Claude Sonnet 5; Fable 5 export restrictions lifted" } ] }, { "id": "other-launch", "label": "other-house launch", "kind": "launch", "scope": "other", "hits": 5, "total": 10, "rate": 0.5, "smoothedRate": 0.5, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 2.517857142857143, "hazardLift": 2.517857142857143, "trusted": true, "examples": [ { "date": "2026-04-23", "name": "GPT-5.5 (Thinking, Pro)" }, { "date": "2026-07-08", "name": "Grok 4.5" }, { "date": "2026-07-09", "name": "GPT-5.6 GA (Luna, Terra, Sol)" }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "name": "Gemini 3.8 Flash" }, { "date": "2026-09-03", "name": "GPT-6 Astra" } ] }, { "id": "other-minor", "label": "other-house minor", "kind": "minor", "scope": "other", "hits": 1, "total": 6, "rate": 0.16666666666666666, "smoothedRate": 0.21428571428571427, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1.079081632653061, "hazardLift": 1.079081632653061, "trusted": true, "examples": [ { "date": "2026-07-16", "name": "Grok Build open-sourced" } ] }, { "id": "other-milestone", "label": "other-house milestone", "kind": "milestone", "scope": "other", "hits": 1, "total": 5, "rate": 0.2, "smoothedRate": 0.25, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1.2589285714285714, "hazardLift": 1.2589285714285714, "trusted": true, "examples": [ { "date": "2026-07-14", "name": "Codex 8M active users" } ] }, { "id": "other-incident", "label": "incident elsewhere", "kind": "incident", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 4, "rate": 0, "smoothedRate": 0.1, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 0.5035714285714286, "hazardLift": 0.5035714285714286, "trusted": true, "examples": [] }, { "id": "same-policy", "label": "own policy", "kind": "policy", "scope": "same", "hits": 0, "total": 2, "rate": 0, "smoothedRate": 0.16666666666666666, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 0.8392857142857142, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "examples": [] } ], "shipDayPrior": { "id": "same-ship", "label": "same-house ship day", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 3, "total": 6, "rate": 0.5, "smoothedRate": 0.5, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 2.517857142857143, "hazardLift": 2.517857142857143, "trusted": true, "examples": [ { "date": "2026-04-16", "name": "Claude Opus 4.7" }, { "date": "2026-06-09", "name": "Claude Fable 5 + Mythos 5" }, { "date": "2026-06-30", "name": "Claude Sonnet 5; Fable 5 export restrictions lifted" } ] }, "active": [], "upcoming": [ { "date": "2026-09-22", "at": "2026-09-22T12:00:00.000Z", "daysUntil": 1.766634201388889, "inDays": 2, "house": "openai", "houseLabel": "OpenAI", "kind": "promise", "name": "Banked reset promised for Tuesday", "chip": "banked reset", "source": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2101352781219258527", "confidence": "stated", "inHazard": false, "active": false, "headline": null, "watch": [], "providers": [ { "id": "same-promise", "label": "Codex", "kind": "promise", "scope": "same", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-promise" }, { "id": "other-promise", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "promise", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-promise" }, { "id": "other-promise", "label": "Grok Bot", "kind": "promise", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "grok", "classLabel": "other-promise" } ] }, { "date": "2026-09-29", "at": "2026-09-29T12:00:00.000Z", "daysUntil": 8.76663420138889, "inDays": 9, "house": "openai", "houseLabel": "OpenAI", "kind": "event", "name": "OpenAI DevDay, Fort Mason, San Francisco", "chip": "OpenAI DevDay", "source": "https://devday.openai.com/", "confidence": "scheduled", "inHazard": true, "active": false, "headline": "75% of OpenAI ship days saw a Codex full reset within 72 hours, 6 of 8, against a 48% base.", "watch": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5158730158730158, "hazardLift": 1.5158730158730158, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 1, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" } ], "providers": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5158730158730158, "hazardLift": 1.5158730158730158, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 1, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Grok Bot", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "grok", "classLabel": "other-house event" } ] }, { "date": "2026-10-16", "at": "2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z", "daysUntil": 25.76663420138889, "inDays": 26, "house": "openai", "houseLabel": "OpenAI", "kind": "event", "name": "DevDay Exchange Bengaluru", "chip": "DevDay Exchange Bengaluru", "source": "https://devday.openai.com/", "confidence": "scheduled", "inHazard": true, "active": false, "headline": "75% of OpenAI ship days saw a Codex full reset within 72 hours, 6 of 8, against a 48% base, carried at 50% for a satellite stop.", "watch": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.257936507936508, "hazardLift": 1.257936507936508, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 0.5, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet, carried at 50% for a satellite stop", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" } ], "providers": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.257936507936508, "hazardLift": 1.257936507936508, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 0.5, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet, carried at 50% for a satellite stop", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Grok Bot", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "grok", "classLabel": "other-house event" } ] }, { "date": "2026-10-20", "at": "2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z", "daysUntil": 29.76663420138889, "inDays": 30, "house": "openai", "houseLabel": "OpenAI", "kind": "event", "name": "DevDay Exchange Tokyo", "chip": "DevDay Exchange Tokyo", "source": "https://devday.openai.com/", "confidence": "scheduled", "inHazard": true, "active": false, "headline": "75% of OpenAI ship days saw a Codex full reset within 72 hours, 6 of 8, against a 48% base, carried at 50% for a satellite stop.", "watch": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.257936507936508, "hazardLift": 1.257936507936508, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 0.5, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet, carried at 50% for a satellite stop", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" } ], "providers": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.257936507936508, "hazardLift": 1.257936507936508, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 0.5, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet, carried at 50% for a satellite stop", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Grok Bot", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "grok", "classLabel": "other-house event" } ] }, { "date": "2026-10-22", "at": "2026-10-22T12:00:00.000Z", "daysUntil": 31.76663420138889, "inDays": 32, "house": "openai", "houseLabel": "OpenAI", "kind": "event", "name": "DevDay Exchange Seoul", "chip": "DevDay Exchange Seoul", "source": "https://devday.openai.com/", "confidence": "scheduled", "inHazard": true, "active": false, "headline": "75% of OpenAI ship days saw a Codex full reset within 72 hours, 6 of 8, against a 48% base, carried at 50% for a satellite stop.", "watch": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.257936507936508, "hazardLift": 1.257936507936508, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 0.5, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet, carried at 50% for a satellite stop", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" } ], "providers": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.257936507936508, "hazardLift": 1.257936507936508, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 0.5, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet, carried at 50% for a satellite stop", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Grok Bot", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "grok", "classLabel": "other-house event" } ] }, { "date": "2026-10-26", "at": "2026-10-26T12:00:00.000Z", "daysUntil": 35.76663420138889, "inDays": 36, "house": "openai", "houseLabel": "OpenAI", "kind": "event", "name": "DevDay Exchange Berlin", "chip": "DevDay Exchange Berlin", "source": "https://devday.openai.com/", "confidence": "scheduled", "inHazard": true, "active": false, "headline": "75% of OpenAI ship days saw a Codex full reset within 72 hours, 6 of 8, against a 48% base, carried at 50% for a satellite stop.", "watch": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.257936507936508, "hazardLift": 1.257936507936508, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 0.5, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet, carried at 50% for a satellite stop", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" } ], "providers": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.257936507936508, "hazardLift": 1.257936507936508, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 0.5, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet, carried at 50% for a satellite stop", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Grok Bot", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "grok", "classLabel": "other-house event" } ] }, { "date": "2026-10-28", "at": "2026-10-28T12:00:00.000Z", "daysUntil": 37.76663420138889, "inDays": 38, "house": "openai", "houseLabel": "OpenAI", "kind": "event", "name": "DevDay Exchange Paris", "chip": "DevDay Exchange Paris", "source": "https://devday.openai.com/", "confidence": "scheduled", "inHazard": true, "active": false, "headline": "75% of OpenAI ship days saw a Codex full reset within 72 hours, 6 of 8, against a 48% base, carried at 50% for a satellite stop.", "watch": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.257936507936508, "hazardLift": 1.257936507936508, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 0.5, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet, carried at 50% for a satellite stop", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" } ], "providers": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.257936507936508, "hazardLift": 1.257936507936508, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 0.5, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet, carried at 50% for a satellite stop", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Grok Bot", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "grok", "classLabel": "other-house event" } ] }, { "date": null, "at": null, "daysUntil": null, "inDays": null, "house": "xai", "houseLabel": "xAI", "kind": "launch", "name": "Grok 4.7 (missed 12 Sep; 'needs a few more days to cook' on 11 Sep)", "chip": "Grok 4.7", "source": "https://cellcog.ai/blog/grok-4-7-release-date/", "confidence": "imminent", "inHazard": true, "active": false, "headline": "75% of other-house frontier launch days saw a Codex full reset within 72 hours, 9 of 12, against a 48% base.", "watch": [ { "id": "other-launch", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "launch", "scope": "other", "hits": 5, "total": 10, "rate": 0.5, "smoothedRate": 0.5, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 2.517857142857143, "hazardLift": 2.517857142857143, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house launch" }, { "id": "other-launch", "label": "Codex", "kind": "launch", "scope": "other", "hits": 9, "total": 12, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7307692307692307, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5338123415046492, "hazardLift": 1.5338123415046492, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "other-house launch" } ], "providers": [ { "id": "other-launch", "label": "Codex", "kind": "launch", "scope": "other", "hits": 9, "total": 12, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7307692307692307, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5338123415046492, "hazardLift": 1.5338123415046492, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "other-house launch" }, { "id": "other-launch", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "launch", "scope": "other", "hits": 5, "total": 10, "rate": 0.5, "smoothedRate": 0.5, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 2.517857142857143, "hazardLift": 2.517857142857143, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house launch" }, { "id": "same-launch", "label": "Grok Bot", "kind": "launch", "scope": "same", "hits": 1, "total": 4, "rate": 0.25, "smoothedRate": 0.3, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "grok", "classLabel": "same-house launch" } ] }, { "date": null, "at": null, "daysUntil": null, "inDays": null, "house": "openai", "houseLabel": "OpenAI", "kind": "milestone", "name": "Codex 30M active users (25M on 30 Aug; rungs came every 8-10 days in August)", "chip": "Codex 30M active users", "source": null, "confidence": "estimated", "inHazard": true, "active": false, "headline": "80% of OpenAI milestone days saw a Codex full reset within 72 hours, 4 of 5, against a 48% base.", "watch": [ { "id": "same-milestone", "label": "Codex", "kind": "milestone", "scope": "same", "hits": 4, "total": 5, "rate": 0.8, "smoothedRate": 0.75, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5741758241758241, "hazardLift": 1.5741758241758241, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "own milestone" }, { "id": "other-milestone", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "milestone", "scope": "other", "hits": 1, "total": 5, "rate": 0.2, "smoothedRate": 0.25, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1.2589285714285714, "hazardLift": 1.2589285714285714, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house milestone" } ], "providers": [ { "id": "same-milestone", "label": "Codex", "kind": "milestone", "scope": "same", "hits": 4, "total": 5, "rate": 0.8, "smoothedRate": 0.75, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5741758241758241, "hazardLift": 1.5741758241758241, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "own milestone" }, { "id": "other-milestone", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "milestone", "scope": "other", "hits": 1, "total": 5, "rate": 0.2, "smoothedRate": 0.25, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1.2589285714285714, "hazardLift": 1.2589285714285714, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house milestone" }, { "id": "other-milestone", "label": "Grok Bot", "kind": "milestone", "scope": "other", "hits": 1, "total": 5, "rate": 0.2, "smoothedRate": 0.25, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "grok", "classLabel": "other-house milestone" } ] }, { "date": null, "at": null, "daysUntil": null, "inDays": null, "house": "google", "houseLabel": "Google", "kind": "launch", "name": "Gemini 3.5 Pro (missed June, mid-July, early August targets)", "chip": "Gemini 3.5 Pro", "source": null, "confidence": "unknown", "inHazard": true, "active": false, "headline": "75% of other-house frontier launch days saw a Codex full reset within 72 hours, 9 of 12, against a 48% base.", "watch": [ { "id": "other-launch", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "launch", "scope": "other", "hits": 5, "total": 10, "rate": 0.5, "smoothedRate": 0.5, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 2.517857142857143, "hazardLift": 2.517857142857143, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house launch" }, { "id": "other-launch", "label": "Codex", "kind": "launch", "scope": "other", "hits": 9, "total": 12, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7307692307692307, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5338123415046492, "hazardLift": 1.5338123415046492, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "other-house launch" } ], "providers": [ { "id": "other-launch", "label": "Codex", "kind": "launch", "scope": "other", "hits": 9, "total": 12, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7307692307692307, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5338123415046492, "hazardLift": 1.5338123415046492, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "other-house launch" }, { "id": "other-launch", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "launch", "scope": "other", "hits": 5, "total": 10, "rate": 0.5, "smoothedRate": 0.5, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 2.517857142857143, "hazardLift": 2.517857142857143, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house launch" }, { "id": "other-launch", "label": "Grok Bot", "kind": "launch", "scope": "other", "hits": 3, "total": 12, "rate": 0.25, "smoothedRate": 0.2692307692307692, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "grok", "classLabel": "other-house launch" } ] } ], "contagion": [ { "house": "openai", "label": "OpenAI", "ships": 8, "rows": [ { "provider": "codex", "label": "Codex", "same": true, "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5158730158730158, "trusted": true }, { "provider": "claude", "label": "Claude Code", "same": false, "hits": 3, "total": 8, "rate": 0.375, "smoothedRate": 0.3888888888888889, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1.9583333333333333, "trusted": true }, { "provider": "grok", "label": "Grok Bot", "same": false, "hits": 1, "total": 8, "rate": 0.125, "smoothedRate": 0.16666666666666666, "base": null, "lift": 1, "trusted": false } ] }, { "house": "anthropic", "label": "Anthropic", "ships": 6, "rows": [ { "provider": "codex", "label": "Codex", "same": false, "hits": 4, "total": 6, "rate": 0.6666666666666666, "smoothedRate": 0.6428571428571429, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.349293563579278, "trusted": true }, { "provider": "claude", "label": "Claude Code", "same": true, "hits": 3, "total": 6, "rate": 0.5, "smoothedRate": 0.5, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 2.517857142857143, "trusted": true }, { "provider": "grok", "label": "Grok Bot", "same": false, "hits": 1, "total": 6, "rate": 0.16666666666666666, "smoothedRate": 0.21428571428571427, "base": null, "lift": 1, "trusted": false } ] }, { "house": "xai", "label": "xAI", "ships": 5, "rows": [ { "provider": "codex", "label": "Codex", "same": false, "hits": 5, "total": 5, "rate": 1, "smoothedRate": 0.9166666666666666, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.9239926739926738, "trusted": true }, { "provider": "claude", "label": "Claude Code", "same": false, "hits": 2, "total": 5, "rate": 0.4, "smoothedRate": 0.4166666666666667, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 2.0982142857142856, "trusted": true }, { "provider": "grok", "label": "Grok Bot", "same": true, "hits": 1, "total": 5, "rate": 0.2, "smoothedRate": 0.25, "base": null, "lift": 1, "trusted": false } ] }, { "house": "google", "label": "Google", "ships": 3, "rows": [ { "provider": "codex", "label": "Codex", "same": false, "hits": 2, "total": 3, "rate": 0.6666666666666666, "smoothedRate": 0.625, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.3118131868131868, "trusted": false }, { "provider": "claude", "label": "Claude Code", "same": false, "hits": 1, "total": 3, "rate": 0.3333333333333333, "smoothedRate": 0.375, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1.888392857142857, "trusted": false }, { "provider": "grok", "label": "Grok Bot", "same": false, "hits": 1, "total": 3, "rate": 0.3333333333333333, "smoothedRate": 0.375, "base": null, "lift": 1, "trusted": false } ] } ], "milestoneDue": { "house": "openai", "houseLabel": "OpenAI", "rungs": 5, "last": { "date": "2026-08-30", "name": "Codex 25M active users" }, "spacings": [ 7, 22, 9, 9 ], "medianSpacing": 9, "daysSince": 21.73336579861111, "due": true, "provider": "claude", "applies": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "class": null }, "devDay": null, "factor": 1, "trigger": { "name": "catalyst window", "factor": 1, "note": "No catalyst window is open on this build. The layer is held off this bureau's hazard either way: the rolling walk scores it at -0.0163 of Brier, ground it costs this bureau.", "held": true, "heldFactor": 1, "edgeFromCatalysts": -0.01632040037784617 }, "appliedFactor": 1, "held": true }, "confidence": "Low", "backtest": { "brier": 0.07001786228202479, "baseline": 0.04398992542502174, "edge": -0.026027936857003053, "days": 92, "brierWithCatalysts": 0.08633826265987096, "edgeWithCatalysts": -0.04234833723484922, "edgeFromCatalysts": -0.01632040037784617, "catalystDays": 28 }, "sampleSize": 10, "resets": 11, "regimeStart": null, "recent": [ { "at": "2026-09-04T20:08:00.000Z", "gapDays": 50.673611111111114, "receiptId": "2095967323412930677", "receiptUrl": "https://x.com/lydiahallie/status/2095967323412930677", "slug": "claude-max-weekly-reset-2026-09-04" }, { "at": "2026-07-16T03:58:00.000Z", "gapDays": 6.414583333333334, "receiptId": "2077603834453770467", "receiptUrl": "https://x.com/ClaudeDevs/status/2077603834453770467", "slug": "claude-all-plans-2026-07-16" }, { "at": "2026-07-09T18:01:00.000Z", "gapDays": 7.864583333333333, "receiptId": "2075279141352706215", "receiptUrl": "https://x.com/ClaudeDevs/status/2075279141352706215", "slug": "claude-all-plans-2026-07-09" }, { "at": "2026-07-01T21:16:00.000Z", "gapDays": 11.88263888888889, "receiptId": "2072429181565288665", "receiptUrl": "https://x.com/ClaudeDevs/status/2072429181565288665", "slug": "claude-all-plans-2026-07-01" }, { "at": "2026-06-20T00:05:00.000Z", "gapDays": 0.8854166666666666 }, { "at": "2026-06-19T02:50:00.000Z", "gapDays": 9.209722222222222 }, { "at": "2026-06-09T21:48:00.000Z", "gapDays": 8.175694444444444 }, { "at": "2026-06-01T17:35:00.000Z", "gapDays": 16.98263888888889, "receiptId": "2061501787769893055", "receiptUrl": "https://x.com/ClaudeDevs/status/2061501787769893055", "slug": "claude-subagents-fix-2026-06-01" }, { "at": "2026-05-15T18:00:00.000Z", "gapDays": 22.011111111111113, "receiptId": "2055347539923308703", "receiptUrl": "https://x.com/ClaudeDevs/status/2055347539923308703", "slug": "claude-happy-friday-2026-05-15" }, { "at": "2026-04-23T17:44:00.000Z", "gapDays": 6.904166666666667 }, { "at": "2026-04-16T20:02:00.000Z", "gapDays": null } ] }, { "provider": "grok", "label": "Grok Bot", "asOf": "2026-09-20T17:36:02.805Z", "lastResetAt": "2026-09-05T18:24:00.000Z", "daysSince": 14.966699131944445, "p24": 0.1973856485603711, "p48": 0.35581020286314424, "p72": 0.48296402376697645, "empirical": null, "weibull": { "k": 1, "scale": 5.230103161074611, "n": 2, "shrunk": true }, "gaps": { "mean": 4.983333333333333, "median": 4.983333333333333, "min": 4.110416666666667, "max": 5.85625, "p25": 4.546875, "p75": 5.419791666666667 }, "peakWindowPT": [ 10, 13 ], "hourHist": [ 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "dowHist": [ 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1 ], "sleepZone": { "count": 0, "of": 3 }, "multipliers": [ { "name": "cluster momentum", "factor": 1, "note": "0 full resets in the last 5 days, so there is no burst to ride. Two or more makes it fire." }, { "name": "long drought", "factor": 1.15, "note": "The wait is past the 75th percentile of 5.42 days, and this fit is memoryless, so the nudge is the only thing carrying it. On a sample this thin it is a guess wearing a number." }, { "name": "catalyst window", "factor": 1, "note": "No catalyst window is open on this build. The layer is held off this bureau's hazard either way: the rolling walk cannot score this layer on this bureau yet.", "held": true, "heldFactor": 1, "edgeFromCatalysts": null } ], "announced": null, "catalysts": { "base": null, "window": { "beforeHours": 24, "afterHours": 72 }, "lifts": [ { "id": "same-launch", "label": "same-house launch", "kind": "launch", "scope": "same", "hits": 1, "total": 4, "rate": 0.25, "smoothedRate": 0.3, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "examples": [ { "date": "2026-08-26", "name": "Grok Bot general availability (SuperGrok, Cursor Pro)" } ] }, { "id": "other-launch", "label": "other-house launch", "kind": "launch", "scope": "other", "hits": 3, "total": 12, "rate": 0.25, "smoothedRate": 0.2692307692307692, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "examples": [ { "date": "2026-09-01", "name": "Claude Fable 5.1 + Mythos 5.1" }, { "date": "2026-09-02", "name": "Gemini 3.8 Flash" }, { "date": "2026-09-03", "name": "GPT-6 Astra" } ] }, { "id": "same-minor", "label": "same-house minor", "kind": "minor", "scope": "same", "hits": 0, "total": 1, "rate": 0, "smoothedRate": 0.25, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "examples": [] }, { "id": "other-minor", "label": "other-house minor", "kind": "minor", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 5, "rate": 0, "smoothedRate": 0.08333333333333333, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "examples": [] }, { "id": "other-milestone", "label": "other-house milestone", "kind": "milestone", "scope": "other", "hits": 1, "total": 5, "rate": 0.2, "smoothedRate": 0.25, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "examples": [ { "date": "2026-08-30", "name": "Codex 25M active users" } ] }, { "id": "other-incident", "label": "incident elsewhere", "kind": "incident", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 4, "rate": 0, "smoothedRate": 0.1, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "examples": [] }, { "id": "other-policy", "label": "other-house policy", "kind": "policy", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 2, "rate": 0, "smoothedRate": 0.16666666666666666, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "examples": [] } ], "shipDayPrior": { "id": "same-ship", "label": "same-house ship day", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 1, "total": 5, "rate": 0.2, "smoothedRate": 0.25, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "examples": [ { "date": "2026-08-26", "name": "Grok Bot general availability (SuperGrok, Cursor Pro)" } ] }, "active": [], "upcoming": [ { "date": "2026-09-22", "at": "2026-09-22T12:00:00.000Z", "daysUntil": 1.766634201388889, "inDays": 2, "house": "openai", "houseLabel": "OpenAI", "kind": "promise", "name": "Banked reset promised for Tuesday", "chip": "banked reset", "source": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2101352781219258527", "confidence": "stated", "inHazard": false, "active": false, "headline": null, "watch": [], "providers": [ { "id": "same-promise", "label": "Codex", "kind": "promise", "scope": "same", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-promise" }, { "id": "other-promise", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "promise", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-promise" }, { "id": "other-promise", "label": "Grok Bot", "kind": "promise", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "grok", "classLabel": "other-promise" } ] }, { "date": "2026-09-29", "at": "2026-09-29T12:00:00.000Z", "daysUntil": 8.76663420138889, "inDays": 9, "house": "openai", "houseLabel": "OpenAI", "kind": "event", "name": "OpenAI DevDay, Fort Mason, San Francisco", "chip": "OpenAI DevDay", "source": "https://devday.openai.com/", "confidence": "scheduled", "inHazard": true, "active": false, "headline": "75% of OpenAI ship days saw a Codex full reset within 72 hours, 6 of 8, against a 48% base.", "watch": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5158730158730158, "hazardLift": 1.5158730158730158, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 1, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" } ], "providers": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5158730158730158, "hazardLift": 1.5158730158730158, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 1, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Grok Bot", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "grok", "classLabel": "other-house event" } ] }, { "date": "2026-10-16", "at": "2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z", "daysUntil": 25.76663420138889, "inDays": 26, "house": "openai", "houseLabel": "OpenAI", "kind": "event", "name": "DevDay Exchange Bengaluru", "chip": "DevDay Exchange Bengaluru", "source": "https://devday.openai.com/", "confidence": "scheduled", "inHazard": true, "active": false, "headline": "75% of OpenAI ship days saw a Codex full reset within 72 hours, 6 of 8, against a 48% base, carried at 50% for a satellite stop.", "watch": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.257936507936508, "hazardLift": 1.257936507936508, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 0.5, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet, carried at 50% for a satellite stop", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" } ], "providers": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.257936507936508, "hazardLift": 1.257936507936508, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 0.5, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet, carried at 50% for a satellite stop", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Grok Bot", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "grok", "classLabel": "other-house event" } ] }, { "date": "2026-10-20", "at": "2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z", "daysUntil": 29.76663420138889, "inDays": 30, "house": "openai", "houseLabel": "OpenAI", "kind": "event", "name": "DevDay Exchange Tokyo", "chip": "DevDay Exchange Tokyo", "source": "https://devday.openai.com/", "confidence": "scheduled", "inHazard": true, "active": false, "headline": "75% of OpenAI ship days saw a Codex full reset within 72 hours, 6 of 8, against a 48% base, carried at 50% for a satellite stop.", "watch": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.257936507936508, "hazardLift": 1.257936507936508, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 0.5, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet, carried at 50% for a satellite stop", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" } ], "providers": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.257936507936508, "hazardLift": 1.257936507936508, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 0.5, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet, carried at 50% for a satellite stop", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Grok Bot", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "grok", "classLabel": "other-house event" } ] }, { "date": "2026-10-22", "at": "2026-10-22T12:00:00.000Z", "daysUntil": 31.76663420138889, "inDays": 32, "house": "openai", "houseLabel": "OpenAI", "kind": "event", "name": "DevDay Exchange Seoul", "chip": "DevDay Exchange Seoul", "source": "https://devday.openai.com/", "confidence": "scheduled", "inHazard": true, "active": false, "headline": "75% of OpenAI ship days saw a Codex full reset within 72 hours, 6 of 8, against a 48% base, carried at 50% for a satellite stop.", "watch": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.257936507936508, "hazardLift": 1.257936507936508, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 0.5, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet, carried at 50% for a satellite stop", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" } ], "providers": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.257936507936508, "hazardLift": 1.257936507936508, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 0.5, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet, carried at 50% for a satellite stop", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Grok Bot", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "grok", "classLabel": "other-house event" } ] }, { "date": "2026-10-26", "at": "2026-10-26T12:00:00.000Z", "daysUntil": 35.76663420138889, "inDays": 36, "house": "openai", "houseLabel": "OpenAI", "kind": "event", "name": "DevDay Exchange Berlin", "chip": "DevDay Exchange Berlin", "source": "https://devday.openai.com/", "confidence": "scheduled", "inHazard": true, "active": false, "headline": "75% of OpenAI ship days saw a Codex full reset within 72 hours, 6 of 8, against a 48% base, carried at 50% for a satellite stop.", "watch": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.257936507936508, "hazardLift": 1.257936507936508, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 0.5, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet, carried at 50% for a satellite stop", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" } ], "providers": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.257936507936508, "hazardLift": 1.257936507936508, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 0.5, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet, carried at 50% for a satellite stop", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Grok Bot", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "grok", "classLabel": "other-house event" } ] }, { "date": "2026-10-28", "at": "2026-10-28T12:00:00.000Z", "daysUntil": 37.76663420138889, "inDays": 38, "house": "openai", "houseLabel": "OpenAI", "kind": "event", "name": "DevDay Exchange Paris", "chip": "DevDay Exchange Paris", "source": "https://devday.openai.com/", "confidence": "scheduled", "inHazard": true, "active": false, "headline": "75% of OpenAI ship days saw a Codex full reset within 72 hours, 6 of 8, against a 48% base, carried at 50% for a satellite stop.", "watch": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.257936507936508, "hazardLift": 1.257936507936508, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 0.5, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet, carried at 50% for a satellite stop", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" } ], "providers": [ { "id": "same-event", "label": "Codex", "kind": "ship", "scope": "same", "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.257936507936508, "hazardLift": 1.257936507936508, "trusted": true, "prior": true, "priorOf": "same-house ship day", "priorScale": 0.5, "priorNote": "prior, no same-house event in the ledger yet, carried at 50% for a satellite stop", "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "same-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house event" }, { "id": "other-event", "label": "Grok Bot", "kind": "event", "scope": "other", "hits": 0, "total": 0, "rate": null, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "grok", "classLabel": "other-house event" } ] }, { "date": null, "at": null, "daysUntil": null, "inDays": null, "house": "xai", "houseLabel": "xAI", "kind": "launch", "name": "Grok 4.7 (missed 12 Sep; 'needs a few more days to cook' on 11 Sep)", "chip": "Grok 4.7", "source": "https://cellcog.ai/blog/grok-4-7-release-date/", "confidence": "imminent", "inHazard": true, "active": false, "headline": "75% of other-house frontier launch days saw a Codex full reset within 72 hours, 9 of 12, against a 48% base.", "watch": [ { "id": "other-launch", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "launch", "scope": "other", "hits": 5, "total": 10, "rate": 0.5, "smoothedRate": 0.5, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 2.517857142857143, "hazardLift": 2.517857142857143, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house launch" }, { "id": "other-launch", "label": "Codex", "kind": "launch", "scope": "other", "hits": 9, "total": 12, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7307692307692307, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5338123415046492, "hazardLift": 1.5338123415046492, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "other-house launch" } ], "providers": [ { "id": "other-launch", "label": "Codex", "kind": "launch", "scope": "other", "hits": 9, "total": 12, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7307692307692307, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5338123415046492, "hazardLift": 1.5338123415046492, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "other-house launch" }, { "id": "other-launch", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "launch", "scope": "other", "hits": 5, "total": 10, "rate": 0.5, "smoothedRate": 0.5, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 2.517857142857143, "hazardLift": 2.517857142857143, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house launch" }, { "id": "same-launch", "label": "Grok Bot", "kind": "launch", "scope": "same", "hits": 1, "total": 4, "rate": 0.25, "smoothedRate": 0.3, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "grok", "classLabel": "same-house launch" } ] }, { "date": null, "at": null, "daysUntil": null, "inDays": null, "house": "openai", "houseLabel": "OpenAI", "kind": "milestone", "name": "Codex 30M active users (25M on 30 Aug; rungs came every 8-10 days in August)", "chip": "Codex 30M active users", "source": null, "confidence": "estimated", "inHazard": true, "active": false, "headline": "80% of OpenAI milestone days saw a Codex full reset within 72 hours, 4 of 5, against a 48% base.", "watch": [ { "id": "same-milestone", "label": "Codex", "kind": "milestone", "scope": "same", "hits": 4, "total": 5, "rate": 0.8, "smoothedRate": 0.75, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5741758241758241, "hazardLift": 1.5741758241758241, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "own milestone" }, { "id": "other-milestone", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "milestone", "scope": "other", "hits": 1, "total": 5, "rate": 0.2, "smoothedRate": 0.25, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1.2589285714285714, "hazardLift": 1.2589285714285714, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house milestone" } ], "providers": [ { "id": "same-milestone", "label": "Codex", "kind": "milestone", "scope": "same", "hits": 4, "total": 5, "rate": 0.8, "smoothedRate": 0.75, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5741758241758241, "hazardLift": 1.5741758241758241, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "own milestone" }, { "id": "other-milestone", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "milestone", "scope": "other", "hits": 1, "total": 5, "rate": 0.2, "smoothedRate": 0.25, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1.2589285714285714, "hazardLift": 1.2589285714285714, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house milestone" }, { "id": "other-milestone", "label": "Grok Bot", "kind": "milestone", "scope": "other", "hits": 1, "total": 5, "rate": 0.2, "smoothedRate": 0.25, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "grok", "classLabel": "other-house milestone" } ] }, { "date": null, "at": null, "daysUntil": null, "inDays": null, "house": "google", "houseLabel": "Google", "kind": "launch", "name": "Gemini 3.5 Pro (missed June, mid-July, early August targets)", "chip": "Gemini 3.5 Pro", "source": null, "confidence": "unknown", "inHazard": true, "active": false, "headline": "75% of other-house frontier launch days saw a Codex full reset within 72 hours, 9 of 12, against a 48% base.", "watch": [ { "id": "other-launch", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "launch", "scope": "other", "hits": 5, "total": 10, "rate": 0.5, "smoothedRate": 0.5, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 2.517857142857143, "hazardLift": 2.517857142857143, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house launch" }, { "id": "other-launch", "label": "Codex", "kind": "launch", "scope": "other", "hits": 9, "total": 12, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7307692307692307, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5338123415046492, "hazardLift": 1.5338123415046492, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "other-house launch" } ], "providers": [ { "id": "other-launch", "label": "Codex", "kind": "launch", "scope": "other", "hits": 9, "total": 12, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7307692307692307, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5338123415046492, "hazardLift": 1.5338123415046492, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "codex", "classLabel": "other-house launch" }, { "id": "other-launch", "label": "Claude Code", "kind": "launch", "scope": "other", "hits": 5, "total": 10, "rate": 0.5, "smoothedRate": 0.5, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 2.517857142857143, "hazardLift": 2.517857142857143, "trusted": true, "prior": false, "provider": "claude", "classLabel": "other-house launch" }, { "id": "other-launch", "label": "Grok Bot", "kind": "launch", "scope": "other", "hits": 3, "total": 12, "rate": 0.25, "smoothedRate": 0.2692307692307692, "base": null, "lift": 1, "hazardLift": 1, "trusted": false, "prior": false, "provider": "grok", "classLabel": "other-house launch" } ] } ], "contagion": [ { "house": "openai", "label": "OpenAI", "ships": 8, "rows": [ { "provider": "codex", "label": "Codex", "same": true, "hits": 6, "total": 8, "rate": 0.75, "smoothedRate": 0.7222222222222222, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.5158730158730158, "trusted": true }, { "provider": "claude", "label": "Claude Code", "same": false, "hits": 3, "total": 8, "rate": 0.375, "smoothedRate": 0.3888888888888889, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1.9583333333333333, "trusted": true }, { "provider": "grok", "label": "Grok Bot", "same": false, "hits": 1, "total": 8, "rate": 0.125, "smoothedRate": 0.16666666666666666, "base": null, "lift": 1, "trusted": false } ] }, { "house": "anthropic", "label": "Anthropic", "ships": 6, "rows": [ { "provider": "codex", "label": "Codex", "same": false, "hits": 4, "total": 6, "rate": 0.6666666666666666, "smoothedRate": 0.6428571428571429, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.349293563579278, "trusted": true }, { "provider": "claude", "label": "Claude Code", "same": true, "hits": 3, "total": 6, "rate": 0.5, "smoothedRate": 0.5, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 2.517857142857143, "trusted": true }, { "provider": "grok", "label": "Grok Bot", "same": false, "hits": 1, "total": 6, "rate": 0.16666666666666666, "smoothedRate": 0.21428571428571427, "base": null, "lift": 1, "trusted": false } ] }, { "house": "xai", "label": "xAI", "ships": 5, "rows": [ { "provider": "codex", "label": "Codex", "same": false, "hits": 5, "total": 5, "rate": 1, "smoothedRate": 0.9166666666666666, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.9239926739926738, "trusted": true }, { "provider": "claude", "label": "Claude Code", "same": false, "hits": 2, "total": 5, "rate": 0.4, "smoothedRate": 0.4166666666666667, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 2.0982142857142856, "trusted": true }, { "provider": "grok", "label": "Grok Bot", "same": true, "hits": 1, "total": 5, "rate": 0.2, "smoothedRate": 0.25, "base": null, "lift": 1, "trusted": false } ] }, { "house": "google", "label": "Google", "ships": 3, "rows": [ { "provider": "codex", "label": "Codex", "same": false, "hits": 2, "total": 3, "rate": 0.6666666666666666, "smoothedRate": 0.625, "base": 0.47643979057591623, "lift": 1.3118131868131868, "trusted": false }, { "provider": "claude", "label": "Claude Code", "same": false, "hits": 1, "total": 3, "rate": 0.3333333333333333, "smoothedRate": 0.375, "base": 0.19858156028368795, "lift": 1.888392857142857, "trusted": false }, { "provider": "grok", "label": "Grok Bot", "same": false, "hits": 1, "total": 3, "rate": 0.3333333333333333, "smoothedRate": 0.375, "base": null, "lift": 1, "trusted": false } ] } ], "milestoneDue": { "house": "openai", "houseLabel": "OpenAI", "rungs": 5, "last": { "date": "2026-08-30", "name": "Codex 25M active users" }, "spacings": [ 7, 22, 9, 9 ], "medianSpacing": 9, "daysSince": 21.73336579861111, "due": true, "provider": "grok", "applies": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "class": null }, "devDay": null, "factor": 1, "trigger": { "name": "catalyst window", "factor": 1, "note": "No catalyst window is open on this build. The layer is held off this bureau's hazard either way: the rolling walk cannot score this layer on this bureau yet.", "held": true, "heldFactor": 1, "edgeFromCatalysts": null }, "appliedFactor": 1, "held": true }, "confidence": "Low", "backtest": null, "sampleSize": 2, "resets": 3, "regimeStart": null, "recent": [ { "at": "2026-09-05T18:24:00.000Z", "gapDays": 4.110416666666667, "receiptId": "2096303514230423629", "receiptUrl": "https://x.com/bot/status/2096303514230423629", "slug": "grok-bot-sep5-reset-2026-09-05" }, { "at": "2026-09-01T15:45:00.000Z", "gapDays": 5.85625, "receiptId": "2094813795742847123", "receiptUrl": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2094813795742847123", "slug": "grok-bot-elon-reset-2026-09-01" }, { "at": "2026-08-26T19:12:00.000Z", "gapDays": null, "receiptId": "2092691713399931124", "receiptUrl": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2092691713399931124", "slug": "grok-bot-launch-reset-2026-08-26" } ] } ] }